When forests become strategic assets

Linking nexus thinking, forest governance and security in the Baltic region

Giolo, Alessandra

2026

This thesis examines how forests in the Baltic–Nordic region are increasingly situated at the intersection of climate policy, natural resource governance, and emerging security concerns. Drawing on perspectives from multi-level governance, nexus thinking, and climate security, it analyzes how forests are being reframed as strategic assets in a rapidly evolving geopolitical and environmental context. The thesis focuses on Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and Sweden - countries with extensive forest resources that play vital ecological, economic, and infrastructural roles. These forests are central to achieving EU climate targets, supporting energy transitions, and responding to growing geopolitical uncertainties. To place these national and regional perspectives in a broader governance context, the thesis also compares Baltic-Nordic forest governance with the case of Forest Europe, a voluntary panEuropean soft law platform where states, experts, and organizations negotiate shared understandings of Sustainable Forest Management, reporting practices, and forest policy direction. Drawing on 47 semi-structured interviews, participant observations, and policy analysis of EU strategies, national adaptation plans, national energy strategies, and Forest Europe processes, the thesis shows that EU ambitions often exceed national implementation capacities and lack mechanisms to support cross-sectoral coordination. Although EU-level policy frames climate security broadly through resilience and ecosystem protection, national perspectives emphasize forests as vital for energy independence, economic continuity, and societal stability. This misalignment leads to gaps between high-level objectives and local practice. The comparison with Forest Europe further shows how forest governance is also shaped through non-binding, consensus-based processes in which European forest authority is produced through knowledge-sharing, procedural legitimacy, and sustained negotiation rather than through legal enforcement. Furthermore, the thesis shows that forest governance is increasingly shaped by interdependencies across water, energy, food, and forest systems. Geopolitical disruptions have intensified reliance on domestic biomass, reshaped roundwood markets, and elevated the role of forests as buffers against external shocks. However, policy integration remains fragmented, and securitization can further constrain public debate on forest use unless it is grounded in inclusive, transparent, and evidence-based governance. The Forest Europe case highlights both the potential and the limits of soft law governance: while voluntary platforms can strengthen coordination, shared learning, and policy coherence, their credibility depends on meaningful participation, openness, and durable institutional capacity. Further research is needed to analyze how climate security framings evolve in response to geopolitical instability,how forest-based energy systems can balance short-term security needs with long-term ecological integrity, and how soft law governance platforms at EU and pan-European levels can reinforce their credibility and durability in an era of accelerating environmental and political change. The thesis suggests that forests increasingly function as critical infrastructures for climate mitigation, biodiversity, energy stability, and national resilience. To move towards more coherent and legitimate forest governance in the Baltic–Nordic region and beyond, future work should further examine how cross-level coordination mechanisms can be strengthened, how stakeholder engagement can be made more inclusive, and how institutional capacities can be improved to support integrated, nexus-based approaches.

Huddinge : Södertörns högskola, 2026. s. 195.

ISBN 9789189962873

Södertörn Doctoral Dissertations, 1652-7399; 264

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